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  • Winners and losers in the predicted impact of climate change on cacti . . .
    In order to overcome this issue, in the present work, we model the impact of climate change on the distribution of cacti species under two migration scenarios: one assuming no dispersal constraints (i e full climate tracking) and other considering no migration (e g Thuiller et al 2005, 2006)
  • Winners and losers in the predicted impact of climate change on cacti . . .
    In order to overcome this issue, in the present work, we model the impact of climate change on the distribution of cacti species under two migration scenarios: one assuming no dispersal constraints (i e full climate tracking) and other considering no migration (e g Thuiller et al 2005, 2006)
  • Elevated extinction risk of cacti under climate change - Nature
    Our results suggest that climate change will become a primary driver of cactus extinction risk with 60–90% of species assessed negatively impacted by climate change and or other anthropogenic
  • Prickly prospects for cacti under climate change
    We built distribution models for 408 cactus species, nearly one-third of the family, to assess their expected performance under climate change Forecasts like this are inherently uncertain Uncertainty stems from many sources: how climate will change, how quickly species can disperse, and statistical uncertainty itself
  • How well can we predict climate migration? A review of forecasting models
    To address the uncertainties of analyzing migration over the next 30 years, the report considers three potential climate and development scenarios (using RCP and SSP scenarios as inputs): a pessimistic reference scenario, a more inclusive development scenario, and a more climate-friendly scenario
  • Elevated extinction risk of cacti under climate change
    We quantified exposure to climate change through range forecasts and associated diversity maps for 408 cactus species under three Representative Concentration Pathways (2 6, 4 5 and 8 5) for 2050 and 2070
  • Uncertainty in climate projections - uip. primavera-h2020. eu
    Three different types of uncertainty are distinguished: Model uncertainty or spread; Generally, taking into account uncertainties will improve decision making related to natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change
  • FORECASTING CLIMATE MIGRATION – HOW MUCH DO WE REALLY KNOW?
    Climate migration1 has gained public attention, often framed as a looming crisis, though evidence remains scattered and limited 6 While climate change is likely to continue to influence migration patterns and their underlying drivers, the specifics are highly uncertain:4,5 • Climate change leads to environmental changes that
  • Uncertainty Quantification of Climate Change Projections
    Climate Change Projections There are 3 distinct sources of uncertainty in global climate change projections - (1) internal variability uncertainty, (2) model uncertainty, and (3) scenario uncertainty (e g , Hawkins and Sutton 2009) Internal variability uncertainty: As evident from the
  • Chapter 4: Climate Models, Scenarios, and Projections - Global Change
    The timing and magnitude of projected future climate change is uncertain due to the ambiguity introduced by human choices (as discussed in Section 4 2), natural variability, and scientific uncertainty, 87, 98, 99 which includes uncertainty in both scientific modeling and climate sensitivity (see Ch 2: Physical Drivers of Climate Change)





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