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  • Evidence, cluelessness, and the long term - Hilary Greaves
    Considerations of cluelessness are often taken to be an objection to longtermism because, of course, it's very hard to know what's going to beneficially influence the course of the very far future on timescales of centuries and millennia Again, we still have the point that we can't do randomised controlled trials on those timescales
  • Cluelessness - EA Forum
    Cluelessness is radical uncertainty about the long-term effects of our actions Simple versus complex cluelessness All actions we take have huge effects on the future One way of seeing this is by considering identity-altering actions Imagine that Amy passes her friend on the street and they stop to chat Amy and her friend will now be on a different trajectory than they would have been
  • A list of resources on Cluelessness — EA Forum
    See also DiGiovanni's Resource guide: Unawareness, indeterminacy, and cluelessness (July 7th, 2025) for a cluelessness Q A and pointers to what references address what See also this comment of mine (September 15th, 2025) for a brief overview of key debates surrounding cluelessness
  • Summary: Maximal Cluelessness (Andreas Mogensen) — EA Forum
    Maximal cluelessness is a Global Priorities Institute Working Paper by Andreas Mogensen He argues you need not prefer the AMF to Make-A-Wish, and many EA priority rankings seem to be in tension with reasonable assumptions about rational decision-making under uncertainty
  • What Post-Keynesian Economics Can Teach EA About Cluelessness
    Summary Hilary Greaves' work on cluelessness identifies a genuine and serious problem for EA decision-making: in cases of complex cluelessness, we cannot assign well-defined probabilities to the long-run consequences of our actions, and standard expected-value reasoning breaks down Her proposed responses — imprecise credences, shifting to explicitly longtermist interventions — draw almost
  • Reasons-based choice and cluelessness — EA Forum
    Alternative approach to cluelessness: If reasons for and against an action’s long-term effects are equally compelling but incomparable, we should assign them zero weight and base decisions on the subset of reasons that can be meaningfully weighed
  • Resource guide: Unawareness, indeterminacy, and cluelessness — EA Forum
    The challenge of unawareness for impartial altruist action guidance Resource guide: Unawareness, indeterminacy, and cluelessness by Anthony DiGiovanni Jul 7 8 min read 6 20
  • Brief notes on key limitations in Mogensen’s Maximal Cluelessness
    Important limitations of this work (in my opinion) Like many others who’ve made the case for cluelessness, the author actually downplays “the depth of our uncertainty” by omitting essential elements we should arguably be particularly severely clueless about such as alien counterfactual considerations [1] and unknown crucial considerations
  • Resolving radical cluelessness with metanormative
    Problem 1: Radical cluelessness due to indeterminate beliefs I’ve argued previously that a highly compelling normative view — impartial consequentialism combined with certain epistemic principles and decision theory — leads to radical cluelessness (see also Mogensen (2020) and Kollin et al (2025, Sec 2 and 7))
  • Consequentialism and Cluelessness — EA Forum
    Conclusion I’ve argued that the cluelessness objection is deeply misguided Invisible high stakes don’t undermine ordinary expected value verdicts And even if they did, that wouldn’t undermine consequentialism because the question of what fundamentally matters is epistemically prior to the question of whether we can reliably track it





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